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He was trying to keep the border states from throwing all in with the Confederacy. That is why he allowed them to keep their slaves for the moment. If you were a slave owner in Kentucky or Missouri and heard the Proclamation....you know Lincoln isn't going to let you off the hook in the post war when he is freeing the southern slaves by force of arms. Why would they think otherwise? The writing was on the wall plain as day. A Republican dominated government was established in Missouri leading to the abolishment of slavery in early 1865 to reinforce that belief. Lincoln didn't consider the south a seperate nation. He still continued to promote the idea of them being fellow Americans that went astray.
I'm in full agreement that when the war started his intention wasn't the abolishment of slavery. Whether one slave would be freed or none meant nothing compared to keeping the Union preserved. He began working on the Proclamation in early to mid 1862. Just wanted a victory to announce it so it didn't seem desperate. Having McClellen as General made that a difficult process. Sure the Proclamation had political benefits in helping keep the Europeans out. But I think he did it equally for moral reasons. It wasn't solely for political reasons.
His religious convictions were pretty weak when he entered office even though he had a good grasp of the bible. As the war dragged on and on he started looking at the war as God's punishment being dealt out to America for allowing slavery. His convictions grew much deeper.
I agree with you about his religious convictions growing deeper but I think this started happening later. I do think his son' death and the death toll of the war is what started him searching for a real relationship with the Maker, and not his views on slavery. As others have mentioned the EP was nothing but politics. Even after the EP, Lincoln still had his sights set on exporting freed slaves.
http://memory.loc.gov/mss/mal/mal1/276/2765300/001.jpg
There are many other letters to him and from him about colonization long after the EP was issued. If he was going to free them out of some religious conviction I don't think he would try to get rid of them.
I think if there was a "moment" in the White House that Lincoln came to God, it was 1864, possibly after the Olustee, FL campaign. His illegal and backhanded dealings in getting Florida back into the Union had failed. The war was going badly in '64. The pressures got to him. He needed solace and he found it.