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|Just a quick reply to counter two points (becasue that is all I have time for right now), if Early's invasion is a mere raid, than every Confederate offensive was a raid with no staying power, including the Gettysburg Campaign. With that point and using what seems to be your criteria of offensive capability, than Lee's and every other Confederate army never had that capability, only the Union armies had it.
I believe either side could have weathered the psychological loss of their capitals early in the war, the governments would just have to quickly relocate and assertively take charge again from Philadelphia or Raliegh or wherever. Political damage, yes but not necessarily fatal damage. I do believe Lincoln could have pulled that off better than Davis might have.